Fed funds rate

The overnight benchmark

The fed funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances to each other overnight, in the federal funds market. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not set this rate directly — it sets a target range and uses open-market operations and administered rates (interest on reserves, the overnight reverse repo rate) to keep the effective rate inside that range.

Since it's the shortest, safest rate in the system, pretty much every other rate in the US economy is anchored to it. Treasury yields, mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and the discount rate inside every equity valuation model start from fed funds and add a spread.

The discount rate inside every valuation

At the most basic level, equity prices are future cash flows discounted back to the present. The discount rate that does the discounting is some risk-free rate plus an equity risk premium. When the risk-free rate moves, every present value in the market moves with it, mechanically. A higher discount rate means future cash flows are worth less today; a lower one means the opposite.

This is why long-duration growth stocks (cash flows mostly in the far future) are more rate-sensitive than dividend-heavy value stocks (cash flows mostly in the near future). The same thing happens at the index level, just watered down.

5% is not the same number twice

The instinct is to look at the rate and call it “high” or “low” against a fixed mental anchor. This breaks down all the time:

One number, four completely different policy stances. Memorized thresholds (“above 5% is restrictive”) are left over from one particular era and don't carry over cleanly.

The slope tells you more than the level

What matters to the economy in real time isn't how high the rate is, but how fast it is moving. A rate sitting at 5% for two years is something the economy has fully absorbed. A rate that moved from 0% to 5% in eighteen months is an active shock the economy is still digesting.

The DoubleTrends™ Regime Indicator reads fed funds the same way: as recent change, not as a level. It looks at the change over more than one horizon — a shorter one that captures the acute pace of current policy action, and a longer one that confirms the move is structural rather than a one-meeting reaction. Both changes count. A meaningful short-horizon change tells you the Fed is moving right now. A meaningful longer-horizon change confirms the move is policy, not noise.

One source of pressure in the bear overlay

Fed funds change is not part of the calm-vs-correction-vs-panic baseline. It is part of the bear-regime overlay — the slow, macro-driven state where prolonged drawdowns can persist. Bear entry requires evidence of macro pressure from somewhere, and fed funds change is one of the sources the engine consults.

The rule is positive only — a cutting Fed does not satisfy this condition. The reason is empirical: tightening cycles are where the bear pattern (chronic, prolonged, false-bottom-prone drawdowns) has tended to show up. Cutting cycles tend to coincide with the panic pattern instead, which the engine handles through different gates.

The exact change thresholds, horizon lengths, and combination logic are part of the production rule and are not published. The thing to take away is the direction: the rate's slope is the macro signal, not its level.

Fed funds is one of four macro anchors. VIX percentile reads volatility. Unemployment reads the labor cycle. CPI reads inflation context. Each provides one angle on the macro environment around price action; the regime classifier combines them with the price-based features to produce a single read.