Regimes and signals since December 1995
The complete record: every signal and what came after it, the regime of every trading day, and how often each regime has shown up. Nothing is left out, the early signals included.
All 28 signals, Aug 1998 to date
S&P 500 price returns from the signal-day close. Of the signals with a full year behind them, 23 of 27 saw a higher index one year on. The median one-year return was +18.9%, the weakest −38.5%.
| Signal date | Regime | S&P 500 close | From 1-yr high | 3 months | 1 year | 2 years | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Panic | 6,575.32 | −5.8% | +13.8% | Pending | Pending | Back-tested |
| 2025-04-09 | Panic | 5,456.90 | −11.2% | +14.8% | +25.1% | Pending | Back-tested |
| 2025-03-17 | Panic | 5,675.12 | −7.6% | +6.3% | +18.3% | Pending | Back-tested |
| 2022-10-17 | Bear | 3,677.95 | −23.3% | +8.5% | +18.9% | +58.9% | Back-tested |
| 2020-03-26 | Panic | 2,630.07 | −22.3% | +17.3% | +51.1% | +74.0% | Back-tested |
| 2018-12-28 | Panic | 2,485.74 | −15.2% | +14.0% | +29.6% | +50.3% | Back-tested |
| 2018-10-31 | Panic | 2,711.74 | −7.5% | −1.1% | +12.0% | +20.6% | Back-tested |
| 2016-01-22 | Panic | 1,906.90 | −10.5% | +9.7% | +18.8% | +48.6% | Back-tested |
| 2016-01-14 | Panic | 1,921.84 | −9.8% | +8.4% | +18.4% | +44.5% | Back-tested |
| 2015-08-26 | Panic | 1,940.51 | −8.9% | +7.6% | +12.0% | +25.9% | Back-tested |
| 2014-10-16 | Panic | 1,862.76 | −7.4% | +7.0% | +9.1% | +14.2% | Back-tested |
| 2011-08-23 | Panic | 1,162.35 | −14.8% | +2.2% | +21.6% | +42.6% | Back-tested |
| 2011-08-12 | Panic | 1,178.81 | −13.6% | +7.2% | +19.1% | +43.3% | Back-tested |
| 2010-07-07 | Panic | 1,060.27 | −12.9% | +9.4% | +27.6% | +27.8% | Back-tested |
| 2010-06-10 | Panic | 1,086.84 | −10.7% | +1.6% | +16.9% | +20.4% | Back-tested |
| 2009-03-12 | Bear | 750.74 | −47.4% | +25.9% | +53.2% | +72.7% | Back-tested |
| 2008-11-24 | Bear | 851.81 | −43.8% | −12.7% | +29.8% | +40.7% | Back-tested |
| 2008-01-24 | Panic | 1,352.07 | −13.6% | +2.7% | −38.5% | −18.9% | Back-tested |
| 2006-06-15 | Panic | 1,256.16 | −5.2% | +4.8% | +22.0% | +8.3% | Back-tested |
| 2006-05-25 | Panic | 1,272.88 | −4.0% | +1.8% | +19.1% | +8.8% | Back-tested |
| 2002-10-11 | Bear | 835.32 | −28.8% | +11.0% | +25.1% | +34.6% | Back-tested |
| 2002-07-26 | Bear | 852.84 | −30.1% | +5.3% | +16.8% | +27.1% | Back-tested |
| 2002-07-05 | Bear | 989.03 | −20.0% | −19.1% | +1.6% | +12.9% | Back-tested |
| 2002-06-17 | Bear | 1,036.17 | −17.5% | −14.0% | −2.4% | +9.4% | Back-tested |
| 2001-09-27 | Bear | 1,018.61 | −30.2% | +13.6% | −18.8% | −1.2% | Back-tested |
| 2000-10-19 | Panic | 1,388.76 | −9.1% | −2.9% | −22.7% | −35.2% | Back-tested |
| 1998-09-02 | Panic | 990.48 | −16.5% | +18.3% | +33.2% | +53.5% | Back-tested |
| 1998-08-17 | Panic | 1,083.67 | −8.7% | +4.8% | +24.0% | +36.6% | Back-tested |
Return horizons are measured to the first close on or after 91, 365 and 730 calendar days. “From 1-yr high” is the close compared to the highest close of the previous 252 sessions. Basis: back-tested signals were identified by the historical reconstruction described in the methodology; live signals were published on the day. Medians over all signals: +7.1% at three months, +18.9% at one year, +27.8% at two years.
- Calm
- Correction
- Panic
- Bear
* Year to date. Source: DoubleTrends L.L.C. Readings are back-tested unless they were published on the day. Focus the chart and use the arrow keys to step through each year and regime.
How often each regime comes up
Calm and correction make up roughly two thirds of all sessions. Panic comes in short bursts (a typical episode lasts two sessions), while bear episodes are rare and drag on.
| Regime | Definition (summary) | Signal eligibility | Share of sessions | Episodes | Median episode (sessions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | Low implied volatility relative to its own trailing year. Selloffs are treated as noise. | Not eligible | 32.0% | 178 | 7 |
| Correction | Neither calm nor acute. Contained pullbacks; the default state of a market under mild pressure. | Not eligible | 36.3% | 341 | 4 |
| Panic | An acute decline from a recent high, or volatility in the top of its one-year range. | Eligible — every qualifying reversal | 15.9% | 170 | 2 |
| Bear | A deep, persistent drawdown with repeated oversold readings and macro pressure. Sticky until a material recovery. | Eligible — late-cluster reversals with same-day confirmation only | 15.8% | 3 | 419 |
7,765 trading days from December 29, 1995 to November 6, 2026.
Data files
- Signal history
- doubletrends-signals.csv
One row for each signal: date, regime, S&P 500 close, distance from the one-year high, 3-month, 1-year and 2-year returns and basis (back-tested or live). - Daily readings
- Delivered to subscribers through the portal. Subscription
About back-tested results
Back-tested readings and signals are hypothetical. They were produced after the fact by applying the current method to historical data, with the benefit of hindsight in its design, and were not available to anyone at the time. Back-tested results have inherent limitations and do not represent actual investment results.
Returns shown are S&P 500 index price returns. They exclude dividends, transaction costs and taxes, and the index cannot be invested in directly. Past and back-tested results do not guarantee future results.