Research notes on drawdowns, regimes and the investors who sit through them
Studies of S&P 500 drawdowns and investor behavior, primers on the measures behind the indicator and a note on each macroeconomic input. Plain language, with the data on the page.
Market history and investor behavior: the base rates behind the indicator.
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May 25, 2026
Studies · Track record
Every DoubleTrends™ Signal on the S&P 500 Since July 2016
Every DoubleTrends™ signal on the S&P 500 since July 2016, the regime and drawdown around each, and the forward returns that followed.
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May 25, 2026
Studies · Market history
S&P 500 Drawdowns Since 1950: How Often Corrections and Bear Markets Happen
How often the S&P 500 falls 5%, 10%, 20% and 30% since 1950, how long recovery usually takes, and what those base rates mean for buying the dip.
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May 25, 2026
Studies · Investor behavior
Why Buying the Dip Is Hard: The Best Days Happen During Crashes
Why buying the dip feels hardest when expected returns improve: the S&P 500's best days cluster inside crashes, and missing a few of them changes long-run results.
The measures the indicator is built from, explained one at a time.
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May 25, 2026
Primers · The signal
Double Trend Exhaustion: The Signal Explained
What double trend exhaustion means: a dual-period Williams %R on a short and a long horizon, both turning up out of deeply oversold territory.
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May 25, 2026
Primers · Drawdown
Maximum Drawdown: Depth, Duration and Sharpness
What maximum drawdown means for market stress: depth below the trailing one-year high, time since that high, and ten-day sharpness.
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May 25, 2026
Primers · Market structure
Volume Profile and VWAP
A plain-English primer on volume profile and VWAP: what each measures, how institutional desks use them, and where they fit in market structure.
One note per macroeconomic series the regime classification reads.
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June 6, 2026
Macro inputs · Inflation
CPI Inflation and Federal Reserve Pressure
Why year-over-year CPI matters as context for Federal Reserve policy, and how high inflation combined with active tightening enters the bear-regime overlay.
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June 6, 2026
Macro inputs · Interest rates
The Fed Funds Rate and Equity Market Regimes
What the federal funds rate is, why its recent change matters more than its level, and how the bear-regime overlay reads it.
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June 6, 2026
Macro inputs · Volatility
VIX Percentile: Reading Volatility Against Itself
What VIX percentile means, why it is more informative than the raw VIX level, and how the regime classification uses it.
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June 6, 2026
Macro inputs · Labor market
Why the Unemployment Rate Matters for Market Regimes
Why the U.S. unemployment rate lags but rarely gives false alarms, how its slope is read, and where it fits in the bear-regime overlay.