The DoubleTrends™ Signal

Two horizons of Williams %R

Williams %R is a momentum oscillator that measures where the latest close sits inside the recent high-low range. It moves between 0 and −100: readings near −100 mean price is pinned near the bottom of its range, the hallmark of an oversold market.

DoubleTrends™ computes %R over two periods at once — a fast 21-bar window and a slow 112-bar window — so it reads short-term momentum and the broader trend in a single view. Each line is smoothed with an exponential moving average (7 on the fast, 3 on the slow) to cut erratic noise without lagging the turn.

Exhaustion first, then the reversal

When both the fast and slow %R fall to or below −80, the market is deeply oversold on both horizons at the same time — selling pressure is stretched. The indicator marks this state with square warnings: the trend may be exhausting, but it has not turned yet.

The actual DoubleTrends™ alert waits for the reversal. When %R climbs back out of the oversold zone, a triangle marks the buy reversal — objective evidence that downside momentum has improved, not merely that price has fallen. That climb-out, not the entry into oversold, is the signal you receive.

Built around the oversold side

The oscillator computes both overbought and oversold extremes, but DoubleTrends™ only acts on the oversold reversal. That is where the signal has been precise on broad-index daily charts; the overbought side is weaker, so we don't build alerts on it. This is a dip-buying tool, not a top-caller.

A signal is evidence, not a guarantee. In a slow, grinding bear market it can fire early, before the final low. It also may fire on smaller drawdowns that never become major lows. That is the cost of using a rule that reacts to exhaustion rather than waiting for hindsight.

The practical use case is narrow by design: a disciplined cue for broad-index ETF investors to review a planned cash deployment, contribution, or staged entry. It is not a short-term trading system, a top-calling tool, or a personalized allocation recommendation.